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Han Xiao

USATT#: 1819 | Coach Level: National

Introduction
This page explains how Han Xiao (USATT# 1819)'s rating went from 2563 to 2657 at the Olympic Trials held on - 13 Jan 2008. These ratings are calculated by the ratings processor which goes through 4 passes over the match results data for a tournament. The following values are produced at the end of each of the 4 passes of the ratings processor for Han Xiao for this tournament.

Initial Rating Pass 1 Pass 2 Pass 3 Final Rating (Pass 4)
2563 2631 2563 2631 2657


You can click here to view a table of all the resultant values from each of the 4 passes (and the initial rating) of the ratings processor for all of the 41 players in this tournament. Sections below for further details on the initial rating and the 4 passes of the ratings processor.

Note: We use mathematical notation to express the exact operations carried out in each pass of the ratings processor below. Whenever you see a variable/symbol such as for example Xi3, we are following the convention that the superscript part of the variable (in this case "3") indicates an index (such as in a series), and it should not be misconstrued to be an exponent (which is how it is used by default).

Initial Rating
The initial rating of a player for a tournament is the rating the player received at the end of the most recent tournament prior to the current tournament. If this is the first tournament the player has ever participated in (based on our records), then the player has no initial rating.

The initial rating for Olympic Trials held on - 13 Jan 2008 for Han Xiao, and its source tournament are as follows:
Initial Rating From Tournament Start Day End Day
2563 USA National Table Tennis Cham n/a 22 Dec 2007

Click here to view the details of the initial ratings for all the players in this tournament.

Pass 1 Rating
In Pass 1, we only consider all the players that come into this tournament with an initial rating while ignoring all the unrated players. If a rated player has a match against an unrated player, then that match result is ignored from the pass 1 calculations as well. We apply the point exchange table shown below to all the matches participated in by the rated players:

Point Spread Expected Result Upset Result
0 - 12 8 8
13 - 37 7 10
38 - 62 6 13
63 - 87 5 16
88 - 112 4 20
113 - 137 3 25
138 - 162 2 30
163 - 187 2 35
188 - 212 1 40
213 - 237 1 45
238 and up 0 50

Suppose player A has an initial rating of 2000 and player B has an initial rating of 2064, and they played a match against each other. When computing the impact of this match on their rating, the "Point Spread" (as it is referred to in the table above) between these two players is the absolute value of the difference their initial ratings. When the player with the higher rating wins, presumably the better player won, which is the expected outcome of a match, and therefore the "Expected Result" column applies. If the player with the lower rating wins the match, then presumably this is not expected, and therfore it is deemed as an "Upset Result" and the value from that column in the table above is used. So, in our example of player A vs player B, if player B wins the watch, then the expected outcome happens, and 5 points are added to player B's rating and 5 points are deducted from player A's rating. Looking at Han Xiao's match results and applying the point exchange table, gives us the following result:

Han Xiao's Wins
Winner Loser
Point Spread Outcome Gain Player USATT # Rating Player USATT # Rating
10 EXPECTED 8 Han Xiao 1819 2563 Adam Hugh 14204 2553
100 UPSET 20 Han Xiao 1819 2563 Mark Hazinski 915 2663
130 EXPECTED 3 Han Xiao 1819 2563 Tahl Leibovitz 59922 2433
184 EXPECTED 2 Han Xiao 1819 2563 John Leach 14678 2379
7 EXPECTED 8 Han Xiao 1819 2563 Khoa Dinh Nguyen 8683 2556
93 EXPECTED 4 Han Xiao 1819 2563 Sean Michael Lonergan 27763 2470
25 EXPECTED 7 Han Xiao 1819 2563 Yu Shao 8102 2538
113 UPSET 25 Han Xiao 1819 2563 Yinghua Cheng 54107 2676
143 EXPECTED 2 Han Xiao 1819 2563 Razvan Cretu 62294 2420

Han Xiao's Losses
Winner Loser
Point Spread Outcome Loss Player USATT # Rating Player USATT # Rating
106 EXPECTED -4 David Yong-Xiang Zhuang 58322 2669 Han Xiao 1819 2563
32 EXPECTED -7 Eric Owens 31196 2595 Han Xiao 1819 2563

You can click here to view a table of outcomes and points gained/lost from all the matches with all the players in this tournament.

The "Outcome" column above, shows whether the match had an expected (player with the higher rating wins the match) or an upset (player with the higher rating loses the match) outcome. Based on this outcome, and using both the player's initial rating, we apply the point exchange table from above and show the ratings points earned and lost by Han Xiao in the "Gain" column. Matches are separated out into two tables for wins and losses where points are gained and lost respectively. We get the following math to calculate the Pass 1 Rating for Han Xiao:

Initial Rating Gains/Losses Pass 1 Rating
2563 - 4 + 8 + 20 + 3 + 2 + 8 + 4 + 7 + 25 + 2 - 7 =2631

You can click here to view a table of pass1 calculations for all the rated players in this tournament.

Pass 2 Rating
The purpose of this pass is solely to determine ratings for unrated players. To do this, we first look at the ratings for rated players that came out of Pass 1 to determine an “Pass 2 Adjustment”. The logic for this is as follows:

  1. We calculate the points gained in Pass 1. Points gained is simply the difference between the Pass 1 Rating and the Initial Rating of a player:

    ρi2 = Pi1 - Pi0
    where,

    Symbol Universe Description
    Pi0 Pi0+ the initial rating for the i-th player. We use the symbol P and the superscript 0 to represent the idea that we sometimes refer to the process of identifying the initial rating of the given player as Pass 0 of the ratings processor.
    Pi1 Pi1+ the Pass 1 rating for the i-th player.
    ρi2 ρi2 the points gained by the i-th player in this tournament. Note here that we use the superscript 2 to denote that this value is calculated and used in Pass 2 of the ratings processor. Further, ρi2 only exists for players who have a well defined Pass 1 Rating. For Players with an undefined Pass 1 Rating (unrated players), will have an undefined ρi2.
    i i[1,41] the index of the player under consideration. i can be as small as 1 or as large as 41 for this tournament and the i-th player must be a rated player.

  2. For rated players, Pass 1 points gained, ρi2, is used to calculate the Pass 2 Adjustment in the following way:
    1. If a player gained less than 50 points (exclusive) in pass 1, then we set that player's Pass 2 Adjustment to his/her Initial Rating.
    2. If a player gained between 50 and 74 (inclusive) points in pass 1, then we set the player's Pass 2 Adjustment to his/her Final Pass1 Rating.
    3. If a player gains 75 or more points (inclusive) in pass 1, then the following formula applies:
      • If the player has won at least one match, and lost at least 1 match in the tournament, then the player's Pass 2 Adjustment is the average of his/her Final Pass 1 Rating and the average of his/her opponents rating from the best win and the worst loss, represented using the formula below:

        αi2 = Pi1 + Bi + Wi 2 2

        where αi2 is the Pass 2 Adjustment for the current player, Pi1 is the Pass 1 Rating, Bi is the rating of the highest rated opponent against which the current player won a match, and Wi is the rating of the lowest rated opponent against which the current player lost a match.
      • If a player has not lost any of his/her matches in the current tournament, the mathematical median (rounded down to the nearest integer) of all of the player's opponents initial rating is used as his/her Pass 2 Adjustment:

        αi2 = {Pk0}

        where Pk0 is the initial rating of the player who was the i-th player's opponent from the k-th match.
        Symbol Universe Description
        i i[1,41] the index of the player under consideration. i can be as small as 1 or as large as 41 for this tournament and the i-th player must be a rated player.
        q q[1,118] the index of the match result under consideration. q can be as small as 1 or as large as 118 for this tournament and the q-th match must be have both rated players as opponents.
        g g[1,5] the g-th game of the current match result under consideration. q can be as small as 1 or as large as 5 for this tournament assuming players play up to 5 games in a match.
        Pk0 Pk0+ initial rating of the i-th player's opponent from the k-th match.


      • Therefore, the Pass 2 Adjustment for Han Xiao is calculated as follows:
        • Given the initial rating of 2563,
        • and the Pass 1 rating of 2631,
        • the Pass 1 gain is 2631 - 2563 = 68.
        • Since the Pass 1 Gain of 68 is between 50 and 74 (inclusive), the Pass 2 rating (also referred to as Pass 2 Adjustment) is set to be the Pass 1 rating.
        • Therefore the Pass 2 Adjustment for Han Xiao is 2631.

        You can click here to view a table of Pass 2 Adjustments for all the rated players in this tournament.

  3. After calculating the Pass 2 Adjustment for all the rated players as described above, we can now calculate the Pass 2 Rating for all the unrated players in this tournament (which is the main purpose of Pass 2). Pass 2 Rating is calculated using the following formula:
    1. If all of the matches of an unrated player are against other unrated players, then the Pass 2 Rating for that player is simply set to 1200. You can click here to view these players who received a 1200 Pass 2 Rating. Not all of Han Xiao's matches were against unrated players. So this rule does not apply to him.
    2. For unrated players with wins and losses, where at least 1 of the opponents has an initial rating, the Pass 2 Rating is the average of the best win and the worst loss (using the Pass 2 Adjustment of all rated players) as defined by this formula here:

      Pi2 = Bi2 + Wi2 2

      where Pi2 is the Pass 2 Rating for the i-th player, Bi2 is the largest Pass 2 Adjustment (best win) of the opponenet against whom the i-th player won a match, and Wi2 is the smallest Pass 2 Adjustment (worst loss) of the opponent against whom the i-th player lost a match.
    3. For unrated players with all wins and no losses, where at least 1 of the opponents has an initial rating, the Pass 2 Rating is calculated using the following formula:
      Pi2 = Bi2 + k=0Mi-1 I(Bi2-αk2)
      where the function I(x) is defined as, \begin{equation} I(x)=\left\{ \begin{array}{ll} 10, & \text{if}\ x >= 1, x <= 50 \\ 5, & \text{if}\ x >= 51, x <=100 \\ 1, & \text{if}\ x >= 101, x <= 150 \\ 0, & \text{otherwise} \end{array}\right. \end{equation}
      where,
      Symbol Universe Description
      Pi2 Pi2+ the pass 2 rating, of the i-th player in this tournament only applicable to unrated players, where Pi0 is not defined
      Bi2 Bi2+ the largest of the Pass 2 Adjustments of opponents of the i-th player against whom he/she won a match.
      αk2 αk2+ the Pass 2 Adjustment of the player who was the opponent of the i-th player in the k-th match
      I(x) I:+ a function that maps all integers to one of the values from -- 0, 1, 5, 10.
      Mi Mi+ total number of matches played by the i-th player in this tournament
      k k[0,Mi-1]+ The index of the match of the i-th player ranging from 0 to Mi-1
    4. For unrated players with all losses and no wins, where at least 1 of the opponents has an initial rating, the Pass 2 Rating is calculated using the following formula:
      Pi2 = Wi2 + k=0Mi-1 I(Wi2-αk2)
      where I(x) is defined above and,

      Symbol Universe Description
      Pi2 Pi2+ the pass 2 rating, of the i-th player in this tournament only applicable to unrated players, where Pi0 is not defined
      Wi2 Wi2+ the smallest of the Pass 2 Adjustments of opponents of the i-th player against whom he/she lost a match.
      αk2 αk2+ the Pass 2 Adjustment of the player who was the opponent of the i-th player in the k-th match
      I(x) I:+ a function that maps all integers to one of the values from -- 0, 1, 5, 10.
      Mi Mi+ total number of matches played by the i-th player in this tournament
      k k[0,Mi-1]+ The index of the match of the i-th player ranging from 0 to Mi-1
    5. For the rated players, all the work done in Pass 1 and Pass 2 to undone and they have their ratings reset back to their initial ratings while the unrated players keep their Pass 2 Adjustment as their final Pass 2 Rating. Since Han Xiao is a rated player, his Pass 2 Adjustment of 2631 will be ignored, along with him Pass 1 Rating of 2631 and his Pass 2 Rating will be set to his initial rating of 2563 with which he came into this tournament.


Click here to see detailed information about the Pass 2 Ratings of all the other players in this tournament.

Pass 3 Rating
Any of the unrated players who have all wins or all losses are skipped in Pass 3. Since Han Xiao has an initial rating of 2563, he is not an unrated player, and therefore this rule does not apply to him. You can click here to view list of all the players that are skipped in this Pass 3.

Pass 3 Rating is calculated using 2 steps described below:
  1. In the first part of Pass 3, we apply the point exchange table described in Pass 1 above except this time by using all the players' Pass 2 Ratings. Looking at Han Xiao's wins and losses and applying the point exchange table, gives us the following result:
    Han Xiao's Wins
    Winner Loser
    Point Spread Outcome Gain Player USATT # Rating Player USATT # Rating
    10 EXPECTED 8 Han Xiao 1819 2563 Adam Hugh 14204 2553
    100 UPSET 20 Han Xiao 1819 2563 Mark Hazinski 915 2663
    130 EXPECTED 3 Han Xiao 1819 2563 Tahl Leibovitz 59922 2433
    184 EXPECTED 2 Han Xiao 1819 2563 John Leach 14678 2379
    7 EXPECTED 8 Han Xiao 1819 2563 Khoa Dinh Nguyen 8683 2556
    93 EXPECTED 4 Han Xiao 1819 2563 Sean Michael Lonergan 27763 2470
    25 EXPECTED 7 Han Xiao 1819 2563 Yu Shao 8102 2538
    113 UPSET 25 Han Xiao 1819 2563 Yinghua Cheng 54107 2676
    143 EXPECTED 2 Han Xiao 1819 2563 Razvan Cretu 62294 2420

    Han Xiao's Losses
    Winner Loser
    Point Spread Outcome Loss Player USATT # Rating Player USATT # Rating
    106 EXPECTED -4 David Yong-Xiang Zhuang 58322 2669 Han Xiao 1819 2563
    32 EXPECTED -7 Eric Owens 31196 2595 Han Xiao 1819 2563

    You can click here to view a table of outcomes and points gained/lost from all the matches with all the players in this tournament for Pass 3 Part 1.

    The "Outcome" column above, shows whether the match had an expected (player with the higher rating wins the match) or an upset (player with the higher rating loses the match) outcome. Based on this outcome, and using both the player's Pass 2 Rating, we apply the point exchange table from above and show the rating points earned and lost by Han Xiao in the "Gain" column. Matches are divided up into two tables for wins and losses where points are "Gain"ed for the wins and "loss"ed for losses. Putting all the gains and losses together, we get the following math to calculate the rating for Han Xiao in this first part of Pass 3:

    Pass 2 Rating Gains/Losses Pass 3 Part 1 Rating
    2563 - 4 + 8 + 20 + 3 + 2 + 8 + 4 + 7 + 25 + 2 - 7 =2631


    You can click here to view a table of these calculations for all the players in this tournament.

  2. Given the Pass 3 Part 1 rating calculated above, the second part of Pass 3 looks very similar to the part of Pass 2 that deals with rated players where we calculate their Pass 2 Adjustment.
    1. First, we calculate the points gained in Pass 3 Part 1. Points gained is simply the difference between the Pass 3 Part 1 Rating and the Pass 2 Rating of a player:

      ρi3 = pi3 - Pi2
      where,

      Symbol Universe Description
      Pi2 Pi2+ the Pass 2 Rating for the i-th player.
      pi3 pi3+ the Pass 3 Part 1 rating for the i-th player. (Note that since this is an intermediate result, we are using a lower case p instead of the upper case P that we use to indicate final result from each pass of the ratings processor.
      ρi3 ρi3 the points gained by the i-th player in this tournament in Pass 3.
      i i[1,41] the index of the player under consideration. i can be as small as 1 or as large as 41 for this tournament.

  3. Pass 3 points gained, ρi3, is then used to calculate the Pass 3 Part 2 Rating in the following way:
    1. If a player gained less than 50 points (exclusive) in Pass 3 Part 1, then we set that player's Pass 3 Part 2 Rating to his/her Pass 2 Rating.
    2. If a player gained between 50 and 74 (inclusive) points in Pass 3 Part 1, then we set the player's Pass 3 Part 2 Rating to his/her Pass 3 Part 1 Rating.
    3. If a player gains 75 or more points (inclusive) in Pass 3 Part 1, then the following formula applies:
      • If the player has won at least one match, and lost at least 1 match in the tournament, then the player's Pass 3 Part 2 Rating is the average of his/her Pass 3 Part 1 Rating and the average of his/her opponents rating from the best win and the worst loss, represented using the formula below:

        αi3 = pi3 + Bi3 + Wi3 2 2

        where αi3 is the Pass 3 Part 2 Rating for the current player, pi3 is the Pass 3 Part 1 Rating, Bi3 is the rating of the highest rated opponent against which the current player won a match, and Wi is the rating of the lowest rated opponent against which the current player lost a match.
      • If a player has not lost any of his/her matches in the current tournament, the mathematical median (rounded down to the nearest integer) of all of the player's opponents rating is used as his/her Pass 3 Part 2 Rating:
        αi3 = {pk3}

        where pk3 is the Pass 3 Part 1 Rating of the i-th player's opponent from the k-th match.

      • Therefore, the Pass 3 Part 2 Rating for Han Xiao is calculated as follows:
        • Given the Pass 2 Rating of 2563,
        • and the Pass 3 Part 1 rating of 2631,
        • the Pass 3 Part 1 gain is 2631 - 2563 = 68.
        • Since the Pass 3 Gain of 68 is between 50 and 74 (inclusive), the Pass 3 Part 2 Rating is set to be the Pass 3 Part 1 Rating.
        • Therefore the Pass 3 Part 2 Rating for Han Xiao is 2631.

      The Pass 3 Part 2 rating ends up becoming the final Pass 3 rating (also referred to as the Pass 3 Adjustment) except as follows:
      • In the cases where the Pass 3 Part 2 rating is less than the players' initial rating Pi0, the Pass 3 rating is reset back to that players initial rating. Han Xiao's Pass 3 Part 2 Rating came out to 2631. Since this value is greater than Han Xiao's initial rating of 2563, his Pass 3 Adjustment is set to his Pass 3 Part 2 Rating of 2631.

      • It is possible for the admin of this tournament to override the Pass 3 Adjustment calculated above with a value they deem appropriate. Han Xiao does not have a manually overridden value for his Pass 3 Adjustment, therefore the value remains at 2631.
      You can click here to view a table of Pass 3 Part 2 Ratings for all the players in this tournament along with any manually overridden values.

Pass 4 Rating
Pass 4 is the final pass of the ratings processor. In this pass, we take the adjusted ratings (Pass 3 Adjustment) of all the rated players, and the assigned rating of unrated players (Pass 2 Rating), and apply the point exchange table to the match results based on these ratings to arrive at a final rating. Looking at Han Xiao's match results and applying the point exchange table, gives us the following result:

Han Xiao's Wins
Winner Loser
Point Spread Outcome Gain Player USATT # Rating Player USATT # Rating
78 EXPECTED 5 Han Xiao 1819 2631 Adam Hugh 14204 2553
32 UPSET 10 Han Xiao 1819 2631 Mark Hazinski 915 2663
198 EXPECTED 1 Han Xiao 1819 2631 Tahl Leibovitz 59922 2433
252 EXPECTED 0 Han Xiao 1819 2631 John Leach 14678 2379
75 EXPECTED 5 Han Xiao 1819 2631 Khoa Dinh Nguyen 8683 2556
161 EXPECTED 2 Han Xiao 1819 2631 Sean Michael Lonergan 27763 2470
93 EXPECTED 4 Han Xiao 1819 2631 Yu Shao 8102 2538
45 UPSET 13 Han Xiao 1819 2631 Yinghua Cheng 54107 2676
148 EXPECTED 2 Han Xiao 1819 2631 Razvan Cretu 62294 2483

Han Xiao's Losses
Winner Loser
Point Spread Outcome Loss Player USATT # Rating Player USATT # Rating
38 EXPECTED -6 David Yong-Xiang Zhuang 58322 2669 Han Xiao 1819 2631
36 UPSET -10 Eric Owens 31196 2595 Han Xiao 1819 2631

You can click here to view a table of outcomes and points gained/lost from all the matches with all the players in this tournament.

The "Outcome" column above, shows whether the match had an expected (player with the higher rating wins the match) or an upset (player with the higher rating loses the match) outcome. Based on this outcome, and using both the players' Pass 3 Adjustment, we apply the point exchange table from above and show the ratings points earned and lost by Han Xiao in the "Gain" and "Loss" columns. Matches are separated out into two tables for wins and losses where points are gained and lost respectively. We get the following math to calculate the Pass 4 Rating for Han Xiao:

Pass 3 Rating Gains/Losses Pass 4 Rating
2631 - 6 + 5 + 10 + 1 + 0 + 5 + 2 + 4 + 13 + 2 - 10 =2657

You can click here to view a table of Pass 4 calculations for all the players in this tournament.