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Caleb Au

USATT#: 1167515

Introduction
This page explains how Caleb Au (USATT# 1167515)'s rating went from 1237 to 1406 at the LATTA Butterfly Open July 2021 held on 31 Jul 2021 - 31 Jul 2021. These ratings are calculated by the ratings processor which goes through 4 passes over the match results data for a tournament. The following values are produced at the end of each of the 4 passes of the ratings processor for Caleb Au for this tournament.

Initial Rating Pass 1 Pass 2 Pass 3 Final Rating (Pass 4)
1237 1341 1237 1356 1406


You can click here to view a table of all the resultant values from each of the 4 passes (and the initial rating) of the ratings processor for all of the 86 players in this tournament. Sections below for further details on the initial rating and the 4 passes of the ratings processor.

Note: We use mathematical notation to express the exact operations carried out in each pass of the ratings processor below. Whenever you see a variable/symbol such as for example Xi3, we are following the convention that the superscript part of the variable (in this case "3") indicates an index (such as in a series), and it should not be misconstrued to be an exponent (which is how it is used by default).

Initial Rating
The initial rating of a player for a tournament is the rating the player received at the end of the most recent tournament prior to the current tournament. If this is the first tournament the player has ever participated in (based on our records), then the player has no initial rating.

The initial rating for LATTA Butterfly Open July 2021 held on 31 Jul 2021 - 31 Jul 2021 for Caleb Au, and its source tournament are as follows:
Initial Rating From Tournament Start Day End Day
1237 2021 US National Table Tennis Championships 4 Jul 2021 9 Jul 2021

Click here to view the details of the initial ratings for all the players in this tournament.

Pass 1 Rating
In Pass 1, we only consider all the players that come into this tournament with an initial rating while ignoring all the unrated players. If a rated player has a match against an unrated player, then that match result is ignored from the pass 1 calculations as well. We apply the point exchange table shown below to all the matches participated in by the rated players:

Point Spread Expected Result Upset Result
0 - 12 8 8
13 - 37 7 10
38 - 62 6 13
63 - 87 5 16
88 - 112 4 20
113 - 137 3 25
138 - 162 2 30
163 - 187 2 35
188 - 212 1 40
213 - 237 1 45
238 and up 0 50

Suppose player A has an initial rating of 2000 and player B has an initial rating of 2064, and they played a match against each other. When computing the impact of this match on their rating, the "Point Spread" (as it is referred to in the table above) between these two players is the absolute value of the difference their initial ratings. When the player with the higher rating wins, presumably the better player won, which is the expected outcome of a match, and therefore the "Expected Result" column applies. If the player with the lower rating wins the match, then presumably this is not expected, and therfore it is deemed as an "Upset Result" and the value from that column in the table above is used. So, in our example of player A vs player B, if player B wins the watch, then the expected outcome happens, and 5 points are added to player B's rating and 5 points are deducted from player A's rating. Looking at Caleb Au's match results and applying the point exchange table, gives us the following result:

Caleb Au's Wins
Winner Loser
Point Spread Outcome Gain Player USATT # Rating Player USATT # Rating
43 EXPECTED 6 Caleb Au 1167515 1237 Stanley Gene Gene Frisbee 5925 1194
305 EXPECTED 0 Caleb Au 1167515 1237 Nana Truong 203076 932
17 UPSET 10 Caleb Au 1167515 1237 Matthew Hekmatniaz 202852 1254
148 EXPECTED 2 Caleb Au 1167515 1237 Vikram Jayakumar 85447 1089
17 UPSET 10 Caleb Au 1167515 1237 Matthew Hekmatniaz 202852 1254
347 UPSET 50 Caleb Au 1167515 1237 William Huy Anh Nguyen 219181 1584
384 UPSET 50 Caleb Au 1167515 1237 Gene Su 1171817 1621
74 EXPECTED 5 Caleb Au 1167515 1237 Thierry Ung 263089 1163
103 EXPECTED 4 Caleb Au 1167515 1237 Sam Schamberg 218515 1134
0 0 Caleb Au 1167515 0 Bruce Henderson 270100 0
290 EXPECTED 0 Caleb Au 1167515 1237 David Chong 269526 947

Caleb Au's Losses
Winner Loser
Point Spread Outcome Loss Player USATT # Rating Player USATT # Rating
400 EXPECTED -0 Takayuki Hashiba 219305 1637 Caleb Au 1167515 1237
115 UPSET -25 David Vang 1169599 1122 Caleb Au 1167515 1237
400 EXPECTED -0 Takayuki Hashiba 219305 1637 Caleb Au 1167515 1237
132 EXPECTED -3 Colin Andrew Nguyen 221995 1369 Caleb Au 1167515 1237
488 EXPECTED -0 Kathiravan Tamilvanan 203231 1725 Caleb Au 1167515 1237
505 EXPECTED -0 Richard Friedland 270235 1742 Caleb Au 1167515 1237
80 EXPECTED -5 Alfred Graham 1167109 1317 Caleb Au 1167515 1237

You can click here to view a table of outcomes and points gained/lost from all the matches with all the players in this tournament.

The "Outcome" column above, shows whether the match had an expected (player with the higher rating wins the match) or an upset (player with the higher rating loses the match) outcome. Based on this outcome, and using both the player's initial rating, we apply the point exchange table from above and show the ratings points earned and lost by Caleb Au in the "Gain" column. Matches are separated out into two tables for wins and losses where points are gained and lost respectively. We get the following math to calculate the Pass 1 Rating for Caleb Au:

Initial Rating Gains/Losses Pass 1 Rating
1237 + 6 + 0 + 0 + 10 + 2 - 25 + 10 + 50 + 0 + 50 + 5 - 3 + 4 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 - 5 =1341

You can click here to view a table of pass1 calculations for all the rated players in this tournament.

Pass 2 Rating
The purpose of this pass is solely to determine ratings for unrated players. To do this, we first look at the ratings for rated players that came out of Pass 1 to determine an “Pass 2 Adjustment”. The logic for this is as follows:

  1. We calculate the points gained in Pass 1. Points gained is simply the difference between the Pass 1 Rating and the Initial Rating of a player:

    ρi2 = Pi1 - Pi0
    where,

    Symbol Universe Description
    Pi0 Pi0+ the initial rating for the i-th player. We use the symbol P and the superscript 0 to represent the idea that we sometimes refer to the process of identifying the initial rating of the given player as Pass 0 of the ratings processor.
    Pi1 Pi1+ the Pass 1 rating for the i-th player.
    ρi2 ρi2 the points gained by the i-th player in this tournament. Note here that we use the superscript 2 to denote that this value is calculated and used in Pass 2 of the ratings processor. Further, ρi2 only exists for players who have a well defined Pass 1 Rating. For Players with an undefined Pass 1 Rating (unrated players), will have an undefined ρi2.
    i i[1,86] the index of the player under consideration. i can be as small as 1 or as large as 86 for this tournament and the i-th player must be a rated player.

  2. For rated players, Pass 1 points gained, ρi2, is used to calculate the Pass 2 Adjustment in the following way:
    1. If a player gained less than 50 points (exclusive) in pass 1, then we set that player's Pass 2 Adjustment to his/her Initial Rating.
    2. If a player gained between 50 and 74 (inclusive) points in pass 1, then we set the player's Pass 2 Adjustment to his/her Final Pass1 Rating.
    3. If a player gains 75 or more points (inclusive) in pass 1, then the following formula applies:
      • If the player has won at least one match, and lost at least 1 match in the tournament, then the player's Pass 2 Adjustment is the average of his/her Final Pass 1 Rating and the average of his/her opponents rating from the best win and the worst loss, represented using the formula below:

        αi2 = Pi1 + Bi + Wi 2 2

        where αi2 is the Pass 2 Adjustment for the current player, Pi1 is the Pass 1 Rating, Bi is the rating of the highest rated opponent against which the current player won a match, and Wi is the rating of the lowest rated opponent against which the current player lost a match.
      • If a player has not lost any of his/her matches in the current tournament, the mathematical median (rounded down to the nearest integer) of all of the player's opponents initial rating is used as his/her Pass 2 Adjustment:

        αi2 = {Pk0}

        where Pk0 is the initial rating of the player who was the i-th player's opponent from the k-th match.
        Symbol Universe Description
        i i[1,86] the index of the player under consideration. i can be as small as 1 or as large as 86 for this tournament and the i-th player must be a rated player.
        q q[1,318] the index of the match result under consideration. q can be as small as 1 or as large as 318 for this tournament and the q-th match must be have both rated players as opponents.
        g g[1,5] the g-th game of the current match result under consideration. q can be as small as 1 or as large as 5 for this tournament assuming players play up to 5 games in a match.
        Pk0 Pk0+ initial rating of the i-th player's opponent from the k-th match.


      • Therefore, the Pass 2 Adjustment for Caleb Au is calculated as follows:
        • Given the initial rating of 1237,
        • and the Pass 1 rating of 1341,
        • the Pass 1 gain is 1341 - 1237 = 104.
        • Since the Pass 1 Gain of 104 is greater than 74, and Caleb Au has won some matches and lost some matches, the Pass 2 Rating is calculated to be the average of the Pass 1 Rating and the average of the Best win and the worst loss:

          1341 + 1621 + 1122 2 2 =1356    (mod 1)


        You can click here to view a table of Pass 2 Adjustments for all the rated players in this tournament.

  3. After calculating the Pass 2 Adjustment for all the rated players as described above, we can now calculate the Pass 2 Rating for all the unrated players in this tournament (which is the main purpose of Pass 2). Pass 2 Rating is calculated using the following formula:
    1. If all of the matches of an unrated player are against other unrated players, then the Pass 2 Rating for that player is simply set to 1200. You can click here to view these players who received a 1200 Pass 2 Rating. Not all of Caleb Au's matches were against unrated players. So this rule does not apply to him.
    2. For unrated players with wins and losses, where at least 1 of the opponents has an initial rating, the Pass 2 Rating is the average of the best win and the worst loss (using the Pass 2 Adjustment of all rated players) as defined by this formula here:

      Pi2 = Bi2 + Wi2 2

      where Pi2 is the Pass 2 Rating for the i-th player, Bi2 is the largest Pass 2 Adjustment (best win) of the opponenet against whom the i-th player won a match, and Wi2 is the smallest Pass 2 Adjustment (worst loss) of the opponent against whom the i-th player lost a match.
    3. For unrated players with all wins and no losses, where at least 1 of the opponents has an initial rating, the Pass 2 Rating is calculated using the following formula:
      Pi2 = Bi2 + k=0Mi-1 I(Bi2-αk2)
      where the function I(x) is defined as, \begin{equation} I(x)=\left\{ \begin{array}{ll} 10, & \text{if}\ x >= 1, x <= 50 \\ 5, & \text{if}\ x >= 51, x <=100 \\ 1, & \text{if}\ x >= 101, x <= 150 \\ 0, & \text{otherwise} \end{array}\right. \end{equation}
      where,
      Symbol Universe Description
      Pi2 Pi2+ the pass 2 rating, of the i-th player in this tournament only applicable to unrated players, where Pi0 is not defined
      Bi2 Bi2+ the largest of the Pass 2 Adjustments of opponents of the i-th player against whom he/she won a match.
      αk2 αk2+ the Pass 2 Adjustment of the player who was the opponent of the i-th player in the k-th match
      I(x) I:+ a function that maps all integers to one of the values from -- 0, 1, 5, 10.
      Mi Mi+ total number of matches played by the i-th player in this tournament
      k k[0,Mi-1]+ The index of the match of the i-th player ranging from 0 to Mi-1
    4. For unrated players with all losses and no wins, where at least 1 of the opponents has an initial rating, the Pass 2 Rating is calculated using the following formula:
      Pi2 = Wi2 + k=0Mi-1 I(Wi2-αk2)
      where I(x) is defined above and,

      Symbol Universe Description
      Pi2 Pi2+ the pass 2 rating, of the i-th player in this tournament only applicable to unrated players, where Pi0 is not defined
      Wi2 Wi2+ the smallest of the Pass 2 Adjustments of opponents of the i-th player against whom he/she lost a match.
      αk2 αk2+ the Pass 2 Adjustment of the player who was the opponent of the i-th player in the k-th match
      I(x) I:+ a function that maps all integers to one of the values from -- 0, 1, 5, 10.
      Mi Mi+ total number of matches played by the i-th player in this tournament
      k k[0,Mi-1]+ The index of the match of the i-th player ranging from 0 to Mi-1
    5. For the rated players, all the work done in Pass 1 and Pass 2 to undone and they have their ratings reset back to their initial ratings while the unrated players keep their Pass 2 Adjustment as their final Pass 2 Rating. Since Caleb Au is a rated player, his Pass 2 Adjustment of 1356 will be ignored, along with him Pass 1 Rating of 1341 and his Pass 2 Rating will be set to his initial rating of 1237 with which he came into this tournament.


Click here to see detailed information about the Pass 2 Ratings of all the other players in this tournament.

Pass 3 Rating
Any of the unrated players who have all wins or all losses are skipped in Pass 3. Since Caleb Au has an initial rating of 1237, he is not an unrated player, and therefore this rule does not apply to him. You can click here to view list of all the players that are skipped in this Pass 3.

Pass 3 Rating is calculated using 2 steps described below:
  1. In the first part of Pass 3, we apply the point exchange table described in Pass 1 above except this time by using all the players' Pass 2 Ratings. Looking at Caleb Au's wins and losses and applying the point exchange table, gives us the following result:
    Caleb Au's Wins
    Winner Loser
    Point Spread Outcome Gain Player USATT # Rating Player USATT # Rating
    43 EXPECTED 6 Caleb Au 1167515 1237 Stanley Gene Gene Frisbee 5925 1194
    305 EXPECTED 0 Caleb Au 1167515 1237 Nana Truong 203076 932
    17 UPSET 10 Caleb Au 1167515 1237 Matthew Hekmatniaz 202852 1254
    148 EXPECTED 2 Caleb Au 1167515 1237 Vikram Jayakumar 85447 1089
    17 UPSET 10 Caleb Au 1167515 1237 Matthew Hekmatniaz 202852 1254
    347 UPSET 50 Caleb Au 1167515 1237 William Huy Anh Nguyen 219181 1584
    384 UPSET 50 Caleb Au 1167515 1237 Gene Su 1171817 1621
    74 EXPECTED 5 Caleb Au 1167515 1237 Thierry Ung 263089 1163
    103 EXPECTED 4 Caleb Au 1167515 1237 Sam Schamberg 218515 1134
    0 0 Caleb Au 1167515 0 Bruce Henderson 270100 0
    290 EXPECTED 0 Caleb Au 1167515 1237 David Chong 269526 947

    Caleb Au's Losses
    Winner Loser
    Point Spread Outcome Loss Player USATT # Rating Player USATT # Rating
    400 EXPECTED -0 Takayuki Hashiba 219305 1637 Caleb Au 1167515 1237
    115 UPSET -25 David Vang 1169599 1122 Caleb Au 1167515 1237
    400 EXPECTED -0 Takayuki Hashiba 219305 1637 Caleb Au 1167515 1237
    132 EXPECTED -3 Colin Andrew Nguyen 221995 1369 Caleb Au 1167515 1237
    488 EXPECTED -0 Kathiravan Tamilvanan 203231 1725 Caleb Au 1167515 1237
    505 EXPECTED -0 Richard Friedland 270235 1742 Caleb Au 1167515 1237
    80 EXPECTED -5 Alfred Graham 1167109 1317 Caleb Au 1167515 1237

    You can click here to view a table of outcomes and points gained/lost from all the matches with all the players in this tournament for Pass 3 Part 1.

    The "Outcome" column above, shows whether the match had an expected (player with the higher rating wins the match) or an upset (player with the higher rating loses the match) outcome. Based on this outcome, and using both the player's Pass 2 Rating, we apply the point exchange table from above and show the rating points earned and lost by Caleb Au in the "Gain" column. Matches are divided up into two tables for wins and losses where points are "Gain"ed for the wins and "loss"ed for losses. Putting all the gains and losses together, we get the following math to calculate the rating for Caleb Au in this first part of Pass 3:

    Pass 2 Rating Gains/Losses Pass 3 Part 1 Rating
    1237 + 6 + 0 + 0 + 10 + 2 - 25 + 10 + 50 + 0 + 50 + 5 - 3 + 4 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 - 5 =1341


    You can click here to view a table of these calculations for all the players in this tournament.

  2. Given the Pass 3 Part 1 rating calculated above, the second part of Pass 3 looks very similar to the part of Pass 2 that deals with rated players where we calculate their Pass 2 Adjustment.
    1. First, we calculate the points gained in Pass 3 Part 1. Points gained is simply the difference between the Pass 3 Part 1 Rating and the Pass 2 Rating of a player:

      ρi3 = pi3 - Pi2
      where,

      Symbol Universe Description
      Pi2 Pi2+ the Pass 2 Rating for the i-th player.
      pi3 pi3+ the Pass 3 Part 1 rating for the i-th player. (Note that since this is an intermediate result, we are using a lower case p instead of the upper case P that we use to indicate final result from each pass of the ratings processor.
      ρi3 ρi3 the points gained by the i-th player in this tournament in Pass 3.
      i i[1,86] the index of the player under consideration. i can be as small as 1 or as large as 86 for this tournament.

  3. Pass 3 points gained, ρi3, is then used to calculate the Pass 3 Part 2 Rating in the following way:
    1. If a player gained less than 50 points (exclusive) in Pass 3 Part 1, then we set that player's Pass 3 Part 2 Rating to his/her Pass 2 Rating.
    2. If a player gained between 50 and 74 (inclusive) points in Pass 3 Part 1, then we set the player's Pass 3 Part 2 Rating to his/her Pass 3 Part 1 Rating.
    3. If a player gains 75 or more points (inclusive) in Pass 3 Part 1, then the following formula applies:
      • If the player has won at least one match, and lost at least 1 match in the tournament, then the player's Pass 3 Part 2 Rating is the average of his/her Pass 3 Part 1 Rating and the average of his/her opponents rating from the best win and the worst loss, represented using the formula below:

        αi3 = pi3 + Bi3 + Wi3 2 2

        where αi3 is the Pass 3 Part 2 Rating for the current player, pi3 is the Pass 3 Part 1 Rating, Bi3 is the rating of the highest rated opponent against which the current player won a match, and Wi is the rating of the lowest rated opponent against which the current player lost a match.
      • If a player has not lost any of his/her matches in the current tournament, the mathematical median (rounded down to the nearest integer) of all of the player's opponents rating is used as his/her Pass 3 Part 2 Rating:
        αi3 = {pk3}

        where pk3 is the Pass 3 Part 1 Rating of the i-th player's opponent from the k-th match.

      • Therefore, the Pass 3 Part 2 Rating for Caleb Au is calculated as follows:
        • Given the Pass 2 Rating of 1237,
        • and the Pass 3 Part 1 rating of 1341,
        • the Pass 3 Part 1 gain is 1341 - 1237 = 104.
        • Since the Pass 3 Gain of 104 is greater than 74, and Caleb Au has won some matches and lost some matches, the Pass 3 Part 2 Rating is calculated to be the average of the Pass 3 Part 1 Rating and the average of the Best win and the worst loss:

          1341 + 1621 + 1122 2 2 =1356.25


      The Pass 3 Part 2 rating ends up becoming the final Pass 3 rating (also referred to as the Pass 3 Adjustment) except as follows:
      • In the cases where the Pass 3 Part 2 rating is less than the players' initial rating Pi0, the Pass 3 rating is reset back to that players initial rating. Caleb Au's Pass 3 Part 2 Rating came out to 1356. Since this value is greater than Caleb Au's initial rating of 1237, his Pass 3 Adjustment is set to his Pass 3 Part 2 Rating of 1356.

      • It is possible for the admin of this tournament to override the Pass 3 Adjustment calculated above with a value they deem appropriate. Caleb Au does not have a manually overridden value for his Pass 3 Adjustment, therefore the value remains at 1356.
      You can click here to view a table of Pass 3 Part 2 Ratings for all the players in this tournament along with any manually overridden values.

Pass 4 Rating
Pass 4 is the final pass of the ratings processor. In this pass, we take the adjusted ratings (Pass 3 Adjustment) of all the rated players, and the assigned rating of unrated players (Pass 2 Rating), and apply the point exchange table to the match results based on these ratings to arrive at a final rating. Looking at Caleb Au's match results and applying the point exchange table, gives us the following result:

Caleb Au's Wins
Winner Loser
Point Spread Outcome Gain Player USATT # Rating Player USATT # Rating
162 EXPECTED 2 Caleb Au 1167515 1356 Stanley Gene Gene Frisbee 5925 1194
424 EXPECTED 0 Caleb Au 1167515 1356 Nana Truong 203076 932
102 EXPECTED 4 Caleb Au 1167515 1356 Matthew Hekmatniaz 202852 1254
267 EXPECTED 0 Caleb Au 1167515 1356 Vikram Jayakumar 85447 1089
102 EXPECTED 4 Caleb Au 1167515 1356 Matthew Hekmatniaz 202852 1254
228 UPSET 45 Caleb Au 1167515 1356 William Huy Anh Nguyen 219181 1584
265 UPSET 50 Caleb Au 1167515 1356 Gene Su 1171817 1621
193 EXPECTED 1 Caleb Au 1167515 1356 Thierry Ung 263089 1163
222 EXPECTED 1 Caleb Au 1167515 1356 Sam Schamberg 218515 1134
424 EXPECTED 0 Caleb Au 1167515 1356 Bruce Henderson 270100 932
409 EXPECTED 0 Caleb Au 1167515 1356 David Chong 269526 947

Caleb Au's Losses
Winner Loser
Point Spread Outcome Loss Player USATT # Rating Player USATT # Rating
281 EXPECTED -0 Takayuki Hashiba 219305 1637 Caleb Au 1167515 1356
234 UPSET -45 David Vang 1169599 1122 Caleb Au 1167515 1356
281 EXPECTED -0 Takayuki Hashiba 219305 1637 Caleb Au 1167515 1356
78 EXPECTED -5 Colin Andrew Nguyen 221995 1434 Caleb Au 1167515 1356
369 EXPECTED -0 Kathiravan Tamilvanan 203231 1725 Caleb Au 1167515 1356
386 EXPECTED -0 Richard Friedland 270235 1742 Caleb Au 1167515 1356
27 EXPECTED -7 Alfred Graham 1167109 1383 Caleb Au 1167515 1356

You can click here to view a table of outcomes and points gained/lost from all the matches with all the players in this tournament.

The "Outcome" column above, shows whether the match had an expected (player with the higher rating wins the match) or an upset (player with the higher rating loses the match) outcome. Based on this outcome, and using both the players' Pass 3 Adjustment, we apply the point exchange table from above and show the ratings points earned and lost by Caleb Au in the "Gain" and "Loss" columns. Matches are separated out into two tables for wins and losses where points are gained and lost respectively. We get the following math to calculate the Pass 4 Rating for Caleb Au:

Pass 3 Rating Gains/Losses Pass 4 Rating
1356 + 2 + 0 + 0 + 4 + 0 - 45 + 4 + 45 + 0 + 50 + 1 - 5 + 1 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 - 7 =1406

You can click here to view a table of Pass 4 calculations for all the players in this tournament.